The NFL draft is now just over 2 weeks away and many fans are longing for some kind of action to whet their football appetite. It is a tall glass of ice water for those of us who have been wandering the desert known as
Death Lockout Valley. For many Eagles fans, the aspect of trading Kevin Kolb is what could make the draft that much more interesting. Unfortunately, the chances seem slim that there will be player movement allowed before the draft. However, there is another way to obtain value for him in an indirect way during this year’s draft…
Word came down from the league that teams are allowed to trade 2012 picks in this draft. If the Eagles fully anticipate getting a 1st round pick for Kolb, they can use their 2012 1st round draft pick as trade-up ammunition in this year’s draft in lieu of trading Kolb himself. Then, when player movement is allowed again they can replenish their 2012 1st rounder by finally trading him. This isn’t quite as ideal but it is an alternative that can offer the Eagles some flexibility to move up in the draft without giving up this year’s 2nd and/or 3rd round pick.
A 1st round pick in 2012′s draft has approximately the same value as a high 2nd round pick in this year’s draft. With that in mind, let’s refer to the famous “draft pick value chart” that teams use as a guideline to determine trade value. There is some debate as to how much teams actually use this chart but I’ll just point this out real quick for sake of argument: Last year, the Eagles traded up from pick #24 to #13 to select Brandon Graham. They gave up their 1st and two 3rd rounders to do it. Per the value chart, pick #13 is worth 1,150 points and pick #24 is worth 740. The Eagles’ two 3rd rounders were picks #70 and 87 which are worth 240 and 155 points respectively. The Eagles gave up what amounted to 1,135 points…which is pretty darn close to the 1,150 point perceived value of pick #13.
With a 2012 1st rounder being the equivelent of a 2011 high 2nd rounder (roughly somewhere between pick #33 – 38), we could feasibly have 520 – 580 points worth of trade-up power (per the value chart). The Eagles’ current pick, #23, is worth 760 points. By using that + next year’s 1st, it could get them into the pick #9 – 11 range. Of course it takes 2 to tango so a team would have to be willing to accept compensation that wouldn’t come until the following year, which could prove to be a difficult sell. Teams usually always want to benefit in the immediate future not the distant future. Most times when you see picks traded in the following year’s draft, it happens when a team wants to move up from the 2nd round back into the end of the 1st round (like what the Panthers traded us in 2008).
The chances of this scenario playing out are probably remote though it is certainly a possibility. I, for one, wouldn’t mind seeing it happen since I prefer being aggressive in the draft by trading up to grab a more talented player. In essence, I’m a “quality over quantity” type of person. The fun part would be trying to determine who the Eagles would target in a trade-up (1 of the top 2 CB’s?). At the end of the day, I’m not sure I’d want to trade up and have to use our 2nd rounder to do so. We need too much help to sacrifice a pick that could net us a decent player for next season.