The odds of the Eagles making Super Bowl 50 seem to be on a downward trend. Right now, the Eagles are currently listed as Superbowl longshots, albeit not nearly as long as many other teams.
Back in the middle of March, Vegas had them at 18-1 odds followed by dipping to 22-1 in May. Now it’s July and they are currently at 28-1 odds of winning the Super Bowl.
The teams the odds-makers have ahead of them are, in order, the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Cowboys and Ravens. Therefore, they think the Eagles are the 8th most likely team to win it all next February.
I can understand five of those seven teams being ahead of the Eagles. But, the Ravens and Cowboys? Say what?
Last year at this time, the Eagles were 30-1 odds to win Super Bowl 49. The eventual champion New England Patriots were 8-1. The Seahawks were 5-1. If we go back to July of 2013, the odds-on Super Bowl 48 favorites were the Denver Broncos at 5-1 and the Seahawks were 7-1.
Going by the past two years it would seem that the before-the-season odds-makers have a decent idea which teams will most likely be in the Super Bowl and/or win it. Fortunately, we only have to go back one more year to find teams that went the Super Bowl but had lesser odds.
In 2012, the San Francisco 49ers had 20-1 odds and the Ravens had 12-1 odds. Both were better than where the Eagles sit now in terms of odds, but if you recall that season, it seemed to be against all odds that Baltimore actually even made it there.
It also depends on which odds-maker you go by as there are several different ones. Vegas Insider are the ones that have the Eagles at 28-1 but Bovada currently has them at 20-1. I checked a few other lesser known sites that also have the Eagles at 20-1 though it wouldn’t be surprising to see all of them differ a little as time goes by.
20-1 is better than 28-1, at least. And, as mentioned above, the 49ers were 20-1 just three years ago and they at least made it there.
In any case, why are the odds of the Eagles winning this year’s Super Bowl tumbling downward?
Well, the most realistic reason is that bettors are simply not picking them to win. Odds-makers are usually pretty good at setting initial lines based on a variety of factors. But, they change the lines based on what teams are being bet on the most.
So, right now, most gamblers are betting on the Packers to win, which is why they have the lowest odds.
But, are there any other reasons? Do they simply think the Eagles aren’t good enough? Too many changes to be effective this season? Too many unknowns and one huge unknown at the most important position in football?
Ah, that has to be what it is. The uncertainty at the QB position. Every team ahead of the Eagles as far as the odds are concerned has stability at QB. Not only stability, but the quarterbacks of those teams have either already proven capable or are good enough that they strongly project to be capable of winning the big one.
Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez don’t exactly scream “Super Bowl” at this point in time. But, neither did Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.
If Bradford proves to be healthy and is able to play well and lead the Eagles to some early season wins (or even looks really good in preseason), I suspect the Eagles’ odds will improve by the end of September.
My optimism has slowly been growing as time has gone by this offseason. It really does seem that it will all come down to how Bradford clicks with the offense.
Would you bet on it?