2014 Eagles Mock Draft: Predictions From the Most Accurate Mockers | Eagles Addict

The 2014 NFL Mock Draft season is in full force.  Most of the “experts” do a first-round mock trying to match players to teams based on team needs, their talent evaluations and what they might be hearing around the league.

Most people look to the Mel Kipers, Todd McShays and Mike Mayocks of the world, but have you ever wondered if they were the most accurate when predicting first round picks?  And if not, who is?

Well, if you are, you’re in luck!

The Huddle Report releases an annual “mock draft score” to see how all the so-called experts truly fared.  Of course, not every mock drafter is in their competition so therefore it’s not a definitive list of all mock drafters on the web.

However, they do have quite a few (except Todd McShay).  On the left side of the below chart are the top 10 mock drafters from 2013 only.  On the right side are the top 10 based on a 5-year average of the same scoring system.

You can see the full list right here.

Player predicted in the first round (P) = 1 point, Player matched to team (M) = 2 points, each pick can score 0, 1 or 3 points. Ties are broken by (M)

 

RANK 2013 MOCK DRAFTS SCORE M P RANK DRAFT SITE / PUBLICATION 5yr Avg
1 Reginald Brooks – Fantasy Football 1on1 50 12 26 1 Jason Boris – Times News 46.2
2 Jason Boris – Times News 50 11 28 2 Bob McGinn – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 43
3 Mike Mayock – NFL Network 49 11 27 3 Ben Standig – FF Toolbox 2012 CHAMPION 42.8
4 Brian Philpot – The Football Hub 47 10 27 4 Dan Kadar – Mocking The Draft 42.4
5 Brad Clark – NFL’s Future 46 10 26 5 Mel Kiper jr – ESPN 42
6 Forrest N. Long – FF Toolbox 45 9 27 6 Forrest Long – FF Toolbox 41
7 Matthew Jones – NE Patriots Draft 44 9 26 7 Doug Martz – Draft Board Guru 41
8 Rob Staton – Seahawks Draft Blog 44 8 28 8 Robby Esch – The Huddle Report 2008 CHAMPION 41
9 Jason Madson – KC Chiefs Draft 43 9 25 9 Scott Wright – Draft Countdown 2004 CHAMPION 40.6
10 Cody Benjamin – Bleeds Green.com 42 8 26 10 Spencer & Engle – Draft Breakdown 2010 CHAMPION 40.6

I searched for everyone in the above graph to find out who they currently have projected to go to the Eagles at pick 22.  Unfortunately, there were many I could not find including last year’s winner Reginald Brooks (the guy is a ghost!?).

Others, like Jason Boris, probably just haven’t published a mock draft yet.  Last year Boris didn’t publish his “winning mock” until just hours before the draft took place.

Most of these guys will probably change their picks before the actual draft, but of the guys on the above chart I could find, here is who they have the Eagles taking at 22 in their most recent mock draft (I’ve linked to their mocks where I could):

Ben Standig – OLB Anthony Barr

Mike Mayock – CB Kyle Fuller

Dan Kadar – CB Darqueze Dennard

Brad Clark – WR Cody Latimer

Mel Kiper – WR Kelvin Benjamin (last mock), WR Jordan Matthews (in Kiper vs. McShay live mock)

Forrest N. Long – WR Brandin Cooks

Doug Martz – S Calvin Pryor

Rob Staton – WR Brandin Cooks

Scott Wright – WR Kelvin Benjamin

Cody Benjamin – CB Jason Verrett

Will Spencer (Spencer & Engle) – S Calvin Pryor

No real surprise that most folks have them taking a WR, which is the most common position mocked to the Eagles.  The most realistic (and best) one is Mayock’s selection of Fuller.  If Barr actually lasts untill 22, then Standig will be correct!

Taking Pryor at 22 seems antiquated nowadays, doesn’t it?  Just don’t see that at all and never really did in the first place.  I like Pryor as a player, but never saw the Eagles as being interested in him.

Besides the Huddle Report, an SBNation blog called “Blogging the Boys” also hands out mock draft scores, but they use a slightly different grading system. Here’s how they describe their scoring…

Our scoring system is designed to award points not just when a mock hits on a pick, but also awards points if the mock projected a player fairly close to where that player was eventually selected. Here’s how it works:

Each pick can score between 1 and 4 points.

  • Player drafted in first round = 1 point

  • or player predicted to within +/-3 spots= 2 points

  • or player predicted to within +/-2 spots= 3 points

  • or player matched to team = 4 points

And here are their results from 2013 –

Mocker Correct round +-3 picks +-2 picks Matched to spot Matched to team Huddle report score Close But No Cigar Score
Forrest Long (FFToolbox) 27 17 15 10 9 45 68
Mike Mayock (NFL.com) 27 16 14 9 11 49 68
Dane Brugler (CBSSports) 27 16 15 6 8 43 66
Todd McShay (ESPN) 27 12 11 7 10 47 60
Walter Football 26 15 12 8 9 44 62
Don Banks (SI.com) 26 13 11 6 5 36 55
Ben Standig (FFToolbox) 26 11 10 2 4 34 51
Mel Kiper (ESPN) 25 16 13 8 9 43 63
Scott Wright (Draftcountdown.com) 25 16 14 5 6 37 61
Ryan McCrystal (DraftAce.com) 25 16 12 6 7 39 60
Dan Shonka (ourlads.com) 25 15 10 6 8 41 58
Jimmy Kempski (BlogginTheBeast.com) 25 15 13 4 5 35 58
James Christensen (NEPatriotsdraft) 25 14 11 7 7 39 57
Al Fronczak (EastCoastSportsnews) 25 15 8 4 7 39 55
Scout’s Notebook 25 16 11 4 3 31 55
KD Drummond (BTB) 25 13 12 3 4 33 54
Pat Kirwan (CBSSports) 25 11 11 5 7 39 54
Pro Football Talk 25 12 8 6 7 39 52
Sideline Scouting 25 10 6 3 4 33 45
Peter Schrager (Foxsports) 24 18 15 7 8 40 65
Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com) 24 15 14 8 10 44 63
Dan Kadar (SBNation) 24 15 13 7 7 38 59
Eric Galko (Optimum Scouting) 24 15 11 6 7 38 57
Robert Davis (FFToolbox.com) 24 14 11 7 7 38 56
Peter King (SI.com) 24 15 12 1 2 28 53
Doug Farrar (Yahoo.com) 24 13 12 1 1 26 50
Drafttek 24 10 9 3 6 36 49
Lou Pickney (Draftking.com) 24 13 9 3 3 30 49
Evan Silva (Rotoworld.com) 23 13 10 7 5 33 51
Pete Prisco (CBSSports) 23 13 9 4 4 31 49
Josh Norris (Rotoworld.com) 23 10 8 2 5 33 46
Matthew Fairburn (SBNation) 23 8 6 1 3 29 40
Russ Lande (NationalFootballPost) 23 9 6 1 2 27 40
Rob Rang (CBSSports.com) 21 12 9 3 4 29 46

As you can see, there are some similarities but also a few differences.  The similarities are mostly at the top with guys like Long, Mayock, Standig and Wright (two of those guys write for FFToolbox so maybe we should check them out next week!) .

The main difference is that it appears Blogging the Boys looks at other mock drafts that the Huddle Report does not, such as Dane Brugler, Todd McShay, Walter Football and Don Banks.

I actually like the mock drafters that BTB considers more-so than those of THR’s.  Of their top 10 from last year that aren’t on THR’s list, here are who those mock drafters have the Eagles taking…

Brugler – WR Cody Latimer

McShay – CB Justin Gilbert

Walter Football – WR Cody Latimer

Banks – WR Brandin Cooks

Ryan McCrystal – WR Brandin Cooks

Seems there is growing sentiment that the Eagles could actually take Latimer at 22.  I’d certainly take him over Cooks and Benjamin, but I don’t like taking him at 22.

The love for Cooks to the Eagles just won’t stop.  He’s another one that I don’t see as a real target at 22.  People are focused too much on replacing DeSean almost in a literal sense.

They will replace him, but with a bigger, more physical receiver and not in Round 1.

So, what do you think of all these predictions from the top 10 class of the most accurate mock drafters in 2013?

Do you have someone else you consider a more accurate mocker?


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