The 2014 NFL Mock Draft season is in full force. Most of the “experts” do a first-round mock trying to match players to teams based on team needs, their talent evaluations and what they might be hearing around the league.
Most people look to the Mel Kipers, Todd McShays and Mike Mayocks of the world, but have you ever wondered if they were the most accurate when predicting first round picks? And if not, who is?
Well, if you are, you’re in luck!
The Huddle Report releases an annual “mock draft score” to see how all the so-called experts truly fared. Of course, not every mock drafter is in their competition so therefore it’s not a definitive list of all mock drafters on the web.
However, they do have quite a few (except Todd McShay). On the left side of the below chart are the top 10 mock drafters from 2013 only. On the right side are the top 10 based on a 5-year average of the same scoring system.
You can see the full list right here.
Player predicted in the first round (P) = 1 point, Player matched to team (M) = 2 points, each pick can score 0, 1 or 3 points. Ties are broken by (M)
|RANK||2013 MOCK DRAFTS||SCORE||M||P||RANK||DRAFT SITE / PUBLICATION||5yr Avg|
|1||Reginald Brooks – Fantasy Football 1on1||50||12||26||1||Jason Boris – Times News||46.2|
|2||Jason Boris – Times News||50||11||28||2||Bob McGinn – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel||43|
|3||Mike Mayock – NFL Network||49||11||27||3||Ben Standig – FF Toolbox 2012 CHAMPION||42.8|
|4||Brian Philpot – The Football Hub||47||10||27||4||Dan Kadar – Mocking The Draft||42.4|
|5||Brad Clark – NFL’s Future||46||10||26||5||Mel Kiper jr – ESPN||42|
|6||Forrest N. Long – FF Toolbox||45||9||27||6||Forrest Long – FF Toolbox||41|
|7||Matthew Jones – NE Patriots Draft||44||9||26||7||Doug Martz – Draft Board Guru||41|
|8||Rob Staton – Seahawks Draft Blog||44||8||28||8||Robby Esch – The Huddle Report 2008 CHAMPION||41|
|9||Jason Madson – KC Chiefs Draft||43||9||25||9||Scott Wright – Draft Countdown 2004 CHAMPION||40.6|
|10||Cody Benjamin – Bleeds Green.com||42||8||26||10||Spencer & Engle – Draft Breakdown 2010 CHAMPION||40.6|
I searched for everyone in the above graph to find out who they currently have projected to go to the Eagles at pick 22. Unfortunately, there were many I could not find including last year’s winner Reginald Brooks (the guy is a ghost!?).
Others, like Jason Boris, probably just haven’t published a mock draft yet. Last year Boris didn’t publish his “winning mock” until just hours before the draft took place.
Most of these guys will probably change their picks before the actual draft, but of the guys on the above chart I could find, here is who they have the Eagles taking at 22 in their most recent mock draft (I’ve linked to their mocks where I could):
Ben Standig – OLB Anthony Barr
Mike Mayock – CB Kyle Fuller
Dan Kadar – CB Darqueze Dennard
Brad Clark – WR Cody Latimer
Mel Kiper – WR Kelvin Benjamin (last mock), WR Jordan Matthews (in Kiper vs. McShay live mock)
Forrest N. Long – WR Brandin Cooks
Doug Martz – S Calvin Pryor
Rob Staton – WR Brandin Cooks
Scott Wright – WR Kelvin Benjamin
Cody Benjamin – CB Jason Verrett
Will Spencer (Spencer & Engle) – S Calvin Pryor
No real surprise that most folks have them taking a WR, which is the most common position mocked to the Eagles. The most realistic (and best) one is Mayock’s selection of Fuller. If Barr actually lasts untill 22, then Standig will be correct!
Taking Pryor at 22 seems antiquated nowadays, doesn’t it? Just don’t see that at all and never really did in the first place. I like Pryor as a player, but never saw the Eagles as being interested in him.
Besides the Huddle Report, an SBNation blog called “Blogging the Boys” also hands out mock draft scores, but they use a slightly different grading system. Here’s how they describe their scoring…
Our scoring system is designed to award points not just when a mock hits on a pick, but also awards points if the mock projected a player fairly close to where that player was eventually selected. Here’s how it works:
Each pick can score between 1 and 4 points.
Player drafted in first round = 1 point
or player predicted to within +/-3 spots= 2 points
or player predicted to within +/-2 spots= 3 points
or player matched to team = 4 points
And here are their results from 2013 –
|Mocker||Correct round||+-3 picks||+-2 picks||Matched to spot||Matched to team||Huddle report score||Close But No Cigar Score|
|Forrest Long (FFToolbox)||27||17||15||10||9||45||68|
|Mike Mayock (NFL.com)||27||16||14||9||11||49||68|
|Dane Brugler (CBSSports)||27||16||15||6||8||43||66|
|Todd McShay (ESPN)||27||12||11||7||10||47||60|
|Don Banks (SI.com)||26||13||11||6||5||36||55|
|Ben Standig (FFToolbox)||26||11||10||2||4||34||51|
|Mel Kiper (ESPN)||25||16||13||8||9||43||63|
|Scott Wright (Draftcountdown.com)||25||16||14||5||6||37||61|
|Ryan McCrystal (DraftAce.com)||25||16||12||6||7||39||60|
|Dan Shonka (ourlads.com)||25||15||10||6||8||41||58|
|Jimmy Kempski (BlogginTheBeast.com)||25||15||13||4||5||35||58|
|James Christensen (NEPatriotsdraft)||25||14||11||7||7||39||57|
|Al Fronczak (EastCoastSportsnews)||25||15||8||4||7||39||55|
|KD Drummond (BTB)||25||13||12||3||4||33||54|
|Pat Kirwan (CBSSports)||25||11||11||5||7||39||54|
|Pro Football Talk||25||12||8||6||7||39||52|
|Peter Schrager (Foxsports)||24||18||15||7||8||40||65|
|Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)||24||15||14||8||10||44||63|
|Dan Kadar (SBNation)||24||15||13||7||7||38||59|
|Eric Galko (Optimum Scouting)||24||15||11||6||7||38||57|
|Robert Davis (FFToolbox.com)||24||14||11||7||7||38||56|
|Peter King (SI.com)||24||15||12||1||2||28||53|
|Doug Farrar (Yahoo.com)||24||13||12||1||1||26||50|
|Lou Pickney (Draftking.com)||24||13||9||3||3||30||49|
|Evan Silva (Rotoworld.com)||23||13||10||7||5||33||51|
|Pete Prisco (CBSSports)||23||13||9||4||4||31||49|
|Josh Norris (Rotoworld.com)||23||10||8||2||5||33||46|
|Matthew Fairburn (SBNation)||23||8||6||1||3||29||40|
|Russ Lande (NationalFootballPost)||23||9||6||1||2||27||40|
|Rob Rang (CBSSports.com)||21||12||9||3||4||29||46|
As you can see, there are some similarities but also a few differences. The similarities are mostly at the top with guys like Long, Mayock, Standig and Wright (two of those guys write for FFToolbox so maybe we should check them out next week!) .
The main difference is that it appears Blogging the Boys looks at other mock drafts that the Huddle Report does not, such as Dane Brugler, Todd McShay, Walter Football and Don Banks.
I actually like the mock drafters that BTB considers more-so than those of THR’s. Of their top 10 from last year that aren’t on THR’s list, here are who those mock drafters have the Eagles taking…
Brugler – WR Cody Latimer
McShay – CB Justin Gilbert
Walter Football – WR Cody Latimer
Banks – WR Brandin Cooks
Ryan McCrystal – WR Brandin Cooks
Seems there is growing sentiment that the Eagles could actually take Latimer at 22. I’d certainly take him over Cooks and Benjamin, but I don’t like taking him at 22.
The love for Cooks to the Eagles just won’t stop. He’s another one that I don’t see as a real target at 22. People are focused too much on replacing DeSean almost in a literal sense.
They will replace him, but with a bigger, more physical receiver and not in Round 1.
So, what do you think of all these predictions from the top 10 class of the most accurate mock drafters in 2013?
Do you have someone else you consider a more accurate mocker?